My Draft Recap

Writing up summaries of our draft or team-building process can be one of the ways many owners liven up the Sim League Baseball site forums. Before undertaking this blog, I made those one of my main writing outlets about the game.

I am pasting below what I posted about the draft for this 24×24 league, and in future posts I hope to take a deeper dive into some of these players and seasons, too. Recall that we drafted one player each from the 1969-1992 seasons, and had to use each of the 24 franchises once and only once as well. So once you used a year or team, those were off your draft board for the duration. The full draft is viewable on the commissioner’s spreadsheet here.

(Apologies in advance for jargon and references that don’t make much sense outside of the game’s regulars, but I think my self-effacing draft recap holds up regardless):

 

Let’s recap the draft from the WIS (Wow I Screwed up) 24×24 league.

First, I need to praise the structure and flow of this draft, because it got more and more intriguing as it progressed. I honestly believe this theme was worthy of a WISC Round 2. By the time you’ve drafted half your team, you’ve reduced your potential player pool to perhaps a quarter of where it started because of all the years and teams you have to ignore, plus all the other seasons of players already drafted. The number of pegs available to fit into the remaining holes dwindles rapidly until you’re forced into some very difficult decisions.

And then there are the unforced errors, the guys who look great at the time but later don’t fit as well as you’d hoped. You wanted to set up a platoon somewhere, but the other half never materialized. Or you wanted to stay as low in salary as possible, so you turned down a more expensive option only later to realize you wish you’d taken him. Or you misjudged the depth of a position, a year, or a team and realized it much too late.

I, of course, did all of those things. The end result doesn’t look too bad, but the sausage-making that went into it is not suitable for innocent eyes. The concept you have to appreciate here is the sunk cost fallacy. Once you’ve spent the money on someone, your psychology forces you to think you have to make that option work even when a better one presents itself. This leads to more errors, none of which can be undone.

Round 1, Pick 24: 1988 Teddy Higuera, SP, Brewers
The only advantage of picking last is a chance to vault to the top of Round 2 with a strategic salary pick, but my target of 1980 JR Richard went a few picks before me and I couldn’t get anyone cheap enough that I felt was worthy. I wanted to fortify the top of my rotation in the first two picks, and Higuera came in low enough to get me 3rd in R2. Still, I got the 18th pitcher of the round out of 18, and there’s no sugarcoating that disadvantage.

Round 2, Pick 3: 1969 Mike Cuellar, SP, Orioles
Best SP I could grab at this point. Now at least I have two I can be happy with, even if neither really dominates.

Round 3, Pick 9: 1984 Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Cubs
I looked at position scarcity, and after SP I felt like the biggest dropoff from the top guys was at 2B and SS. Of the best remaining at those two spots, Ryno felt like the strong move. Still happy with this pick.

Round 4, Pick 11: 1971 Bobby Murcer, OF, Yankees
I was hoping for Yaz, who was snatched up by nobagel69 two picks before me. There was so much depth at OF and 1B that I was tempted to avoid those spots longer, but Murcer brought a full package. I also might have taken 1987 Eric Davis instead, but he went about 15 picks earlier. Still content now. I have two strong hitters with speed who play good defense.

Round 5, Pick 16: 1975 Burt Hooton, SP, Dodgers
Now we come to my first regret. The group of SP I really like was dwindling fast, and I felt like I needed to get one more before long or I’d end up with La Marr Hoyt or some other disaster (apologies to whoever actually drafted Hoyt, who will probably go 4-0 against me now). But there were other decent pitchers left, and in retrospect it was much too early and the wrong guy to use up my Dodgers pick on. Seeing some of the Blue Crew who went in much later rounds added pang after pang to this one.
Ouch Factor: Willie Wilson, who would have made a perfect CF for me, went 3 picks later. And Lenny Dykstra 4 picks after that.

Round 6, Pick 17: 1987 Kal Daniels, OF, Reds
I’m very fond of this Daniels season for his awesome bat and speed, and though he’s under 500 PA I can certainly find a platoon mate from the RH side later. Now my lineup has three fast guys who are very productive. But I’ve now filled two corner OF spots early when there is tons of depth there, and scarcity at other positions means I’ll be much worse there than I had to be. Mollifying myself by thinking Murcer can play CF with his B+ range if worst comes to worst.
Ouch Factor: I really wanted 78 Dave Parker, but dlchow grabbed him 5 picks earlier.

Round 7, Pick 12: 1979 Gene Tenace, C, Padres
Hey look, La Marr Hoyt went this round! Maybe Hooton wasn’t so bad … I am seeing a lot of speed drafted around the league and at this point Tenace is one of two strong-armed catchers who does enough offensively to be at the top of my list. I looked through the Padres options and felt like that’s a team I don’t want to wait too long to take either, because they mostly stank. The other guy I weighed heavily here was Mickey Tettleton, who went two picks later.

Round 8, Pick 10: 1992 Rod Beck, RP, Giants
Great bullpen options aren’t exactly plentiful in this draft, and I wanted at least a couple solid guys. Shooter has 90+ strong innings, so I don’t mind dipping into the pen at this spot if I’m getting a lot out of him.
Ouch Factor: John Mayberry, who I’d been eyeing for 1B, went at the end of the round.

Round 9, Pick 6: 1976 Garry Maddox, OF, Phillies
The CF candidates I had targeted were starting to disappear, and I have been enamored of Maddox since I watched him glide across crappy turf outfields in concrete donut stadiums in the 70s. More speed and a .330 average don’t hurt at all. Filling up my outfield this early isn’t brilliant, though. But I can’t resist, and I’m certain he will track down everything in the air all season to justify the pick.
Ouch Factor: Several good 3B from teams I’d already used went off the board this round, and I still need one. Starting to think I should have paid some attention to teams and years, but I’ve just been filling spots to this point.

Round 10, Pick 7: 1977 Bert Blyleven, SP, Rangers
I’m funny in liking to have a SP go out there every game who I feel can keep me in the game. I was pretty sure I’d lose that feeling for the back of my rotation if I didn’t grab this season. I strongly considered 1982 Joe Niekro instead, and schwarze nabbed him a few picks later. My 3rd choice, Craig Swan, also was gone by the time I picked again. I should be happy, I guess. Sudden thought: What if I can get a great SP in the supplemental and have no use for the guy I picked 10th? That’s gonna feel silly, isn’t it? Should have gone for a hitter I definitely needed.
Ouch Factor: Al Oliver, another guy I liked for 1B, went 7 picks later.

Round 11, Pick 12: 1980 Joe Sambito, RP, Astros
Not a lot of lefty relievers worth taking, and Sambito gives me another 90+ innings. A lot of relievers went off the board in the round right after this, too. Happy with this one. But, again, my lineup has gaping holes and I’m drafting guys who have far less impact overall.

Round 12, Pick 8: 1989 Todd Burns, RP, A’s
Burns was far and away the best high-inning reliever on my board at this point. I didn’t see anyone else jumping out at me after the two painful picks before me (see Ouch Factor). The chance to lock down a deep pen to go with my completed rotation felt like a good move. If these guys put up crappy numbers in the pen, I’ll feel dumb, though. Also, have I mentioned the gaping holes in my lineup??
Ouch Factor: Cecil Fielder, another 1B target, went two picks before me, and Garry Templeton, my favorite remaining SS, went one pick before me.

Round 13, Pick 13: 1970 Bob Bailey, 3B/1B, Expos
Bailey’s bat had been staring at me for several rounds. His glove is another issue, alas. Also, my lineup is starting to get righty-heavy, and he has truly awful range at 1B so now he’s a wrong-side platoon guy at 3B. And there are some good corner IF in the supplemental draft who might leave him nowhere to play. Despite his gaudy stats, he is a DH in a no-DH league. The sunk cost fallacy plays in heavily from here as I try to build the rest of the team to justify this pick … and fail. I should have taken the half-season SS Hubie Brooks with my Expos pick instead, as I’d been staring at him for many rounds too. He went 8 picks later. The self-flagellation begins in earnest now.
Ouch Factor: NebHusker started the round with Jason Thompson, the last of the 1B I really liked. Also, Hubie. Sigh.

Round 14, Pick 8: 1981 Joel Youngblood, OF, Mets
Here’s a pick that at least makes some sense, because I need a righty corner OF to platoon with Daniels, and Youngblood hits .350 from the right side with the right amount of PA. No glove or speed, but at least he fits.
Ouch Factor: Though I didn’t necessarily need all his PA, Darryl Strawberry was on the board until dlchow took him just before me. I settled for my second Mets option. What would I have done with Strawberry, though? Seems kind of silly that I took Daniels 8 rounds earlier when I could have been happy with Darryl here, which is exactly what I knew would happen at the time but did it anyway.

Round 15, Pick 7: 1991 Bobby Bonilla, 1B/3B/OF, Pirates
Here’s where you’d be right to ask if I had any strategy in mind, because I still don’t know what I was thinking. BobbyBo is productive and versatile, sure, but he’s also awful at 1B and barely better at 3B, and I don’t have much need for more PA in the corner outfield. If I’d never taken Bailey and was just sticking Bonilla at 3B, this would have made sense. And I still might want a corner guy in the supplemental because I expect all the good SS and SP to disappear early. I’m staring at a lot of wasted PA and minus plays in the infield now and wondering how I got here.

Round 16, Picks 21-22: 1982 Rafael Ramirez, SS, Braves and 1974 Bill Freehan, C/1B, Tigers
The best way to handle an error is to compound it, right? Ramirez was as good an option left at SS and at least has great range with a decent bat and speed, so I can live with him if I can’t grab a stud in the supplemental. I’m starting to think a 1B or corner OF who hits lefty would be a great pickup in that round, and there are about 6-8 guys who would really be assets. I just can’t begin to guess where I’ll be drafting that round, and I don’t know if I should hedge my bets and at least cover every position with enough PA.

And that’s why the Freehan pick still boggles my mind. I needed a backup catcher but only 100 PA or so. I already have a budding logjam with Bonilla and Bailey, yet Freehan’s C+ range at 1B looked appealing compared to those guys. But he’s another righty.
Ouch Factor: This time it’s just me inflicting it. I had been looking at Andre Thornton as a solid 1B option (another RH, alas), but he went about 15 picks before me. This was a panic move because Freehan was my best remaining Tiger, I guess, and a very solid player who I felt wouldn’t last. … But why did I need to spend so much on him when I clearly won’t use all his PA and it will only hurt my draft position later? In retrospect, painfully poor decision making.

Round 17, Picks 27-28: 1986 Gary Lucas, RP, Angels and 1985 Bob Woodward, RP, Red Sox
I needed a few more bullpen innings still and these were the best options left for me. Lucas is a serviceable lefty who doesn’t walk many guys, and Woodward has a marvelous 27 innings.
Ouch Factor: Dodgers like Doug Rau, Tommy John, Davey Lopes and Bob Welch are just coming off the board now, and I realize I missed out on a lot of players I liked by taking Hooton so early.

Round 18, Picks 17-18: 1972 Dave Goltz, SP, Twins and 1990 Alex Cole, OF, Indians
Goltz fit a need for a serviceable spot starter and long man. I weighed taking a higher-inning and less effective Bob Tewksbury but saved a little money for draft position with Goltz, who was also my best Twins target left.

Cole was a total panic pick. I was right at my deadline, and I just couldn’t settle on anyone from my remaining teams and years who fit a real need. Cole has good enough range and hits .300 and has 97 speed, all nice assets, but I probably won’t come close to using his 256 PA and just wasted more money.
Ouch Factor: Ron Gant, another guy I’d eyed seriously much earlier, fell to this round.

Round 19, Picks 11-12: 1978 Harry Chappas, SS, White Sox and Olympic Stadium
I’m staying near the top of the order, which is good. Chappas is a cheap SS backup (it came down to him and Bucky F’in Dent). Olympic was my 2nd choice park, so I’m happy to grab it. I’m down to Royals and Cardinals, 1973 and 1983. I wanted to save two players for last so I could mix and match the best options after I see how the salaries are lining up for the supplemental.
Ouch Factor: Mitchell Page, another guy I’d eyed seriously much much earlier, fell to this round. Then Larry Walker fell off the supplemental draft list, making me worry more about what options I might have to make a big hitting improvement.

Round 20, Picks 13-14: 1973 Orlando Pena, RP, Cardinals and 1983 Butch Davis, OF, Royals
I’m sitting 7th in the draft order now with nearly a $2M cushion over the spot behind me, so it’s time to really decide what I’m likely to get in the supplemental and make my final picks work towards that goal. As it turns out there’s a decent gap above and below me in salaries. My only gamble is whether to take Willie Aikens to get a better 1B bat (and, ever so slightly, glove – D instead of D- range) and chance moving down 2-4 spots in the supplemental. The only reason to take him would be to focus on a SP in the supplemental, and falling a few spots down would probably knock me out of getting my targets.

So instead I spent just enough to fill out a usable roster and stay no worse than 7th and stay flexible. I’ve got my eyes on 1B or SP with the preference to a big lefty-hitting 1B (yes, I’m talking to you, Helton, Delgado and Olerud). But if the right SP is still on the board it will be a very tough call.
Ouch Factor: Kevin Brown disappears from the supplemental draft board, seriously lessening my chances at an impact SP.

Supplemental, Pick 7: 2000 Carlos Delgado, 1B, Jays
Though I briefly toyed with a shortstop upgrade, this choice came down to Delgado or Felix Hernandez. Felix would have moved to the top of the rotation, pushing everyone else down and Blyleven into spot duty/long relief. So the question was how much better is my team with those Felix starts instead of Blyleven. Data suggests Felix is worth about 0.50-0.60 of ERA, which is maybe 20-30 runs over the course of the season. Significant, to be sure. The sunk cost fallacy factors in again, though. I’d already committed to Blyleven so long ago, so I feel wedded. Who invented this damn psychology?!

I had to take a hard look at my lineup, where the pending disaster of a 1B-3B combination of Bonilla, Bailey and Freehan awaited me. It’s all a sunk cost. I’m stuck with them. How do I make the team much better now? That’s all that matters. Try not to think about the fact I could have had Randy Johnson or Todd Helton if I’d avoided all that wasted money.

Delgado is worth about 200 points of OPS over that field, and he’s a needed lefty, and he doubles a ton with a +2 park, and he plays at least average 1B (Bonilla and Bailey are serious D- range there). It’s a huge lineup boost for 162 games, and ultimately that made the difference for me. No looking back now!

Stat Summary:
6,651 PA with a slash line of.309/.392/.505, 217 HR, 186 SB/82 CS. $65,657,096
1488 IP with a 2.47 ERA, .210 OAV, 1.02 WHIP, 0.54 HR/9. $49,922,133

I don’t feel comfortable predicting anything, except that I’ll be regretting several things if the season doesn’t go well. Heck, I’ll regret them anyway. That’s how I roll.